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来自中国、美国、菲律宾的几十个专家经过4年多的潜心研究,在对中国过去粮食经济增长作一综合评估的基础上预测21世纪中国粮食可能会面临的问题和挑战。在评估过去粮食生产和消费增长中,他们认为技术创新是中国粮食增长的原动力,城市化、市场化和收入增长是食品消费结构变动的根本原因。在预测未来粮食供需状况时,他们认为,在目前的政策环境下,中国的粮食进口在以后的几年内将会上升;到2000
After more than four years of painstaking research, dozens of experts from China, the United States and the Philippines predict the possible problems and challenges China may face in the 21st century based on a comprehensive assessment of China’s past grain growth. In assessing the past growth in food production and consumption, they considered technological innovation as the driving force for food growth in China. Urbanization, marketization and income growth are the fundamental reasons for the changes in the structure of food consumption. In forecasting the future state of food supply and demand, they think that under the current policy environment, China’s food imports will rise in the coming years; to 2000