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依据组合预测有效度的定义,以单项预测在预测区间内预测精度均值最大为准则,建立了基于单项预测的加权组合预测模型,给出了加权系数的线性规划最优计算模型。应用基于灰色预测与指数平滑预测的组合预测模型研究了我国矿业事故数基本趋势问题,证明应用此模型对矿业安全系统预测分析不仅提高了预测精度,且模型直观、计算简洁,具有较高的实际应用价值。
According to the definition of portfolio predictive validity, a weighted forecasting model based on single forecasting is established based on the maximum forecasting accuracy average of single forecasting in the forecasting interval, and the linear programming optimal computing model of weighting coefficient is given. Applying the combined forecasting model based on gray forecasting and exponential smoothing forecasting to study the basic trend of mining accidents in our country, it is proved that the forecasting analysis of mining safety system not only improves the prediction accuracy, but also has the advantages of intuitionistic model, simple calculation and high practical Value.