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为了检验中国高速增长的经济是否动态有效率,以促进经济结构转型和升级,本文通过建立具有价格黏性机制的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,将经济动态效率研究范式延伸到微观层面,基于消费与资本的动态演化路径推导出平衡增长路径上的资本积累水平和黄金律水平,以此作为评判经济动态效率的标准;并且利用我国1978~2007年的数据对中国经济动态效率进行了再检验,实证分析发现20世纪90年代之前中国经济增长处于动态有效率的阶段,而90年代之后处于动态无效率的状况,尤其在1998年之后更加显著;最后,模拟参数变化对消费和资本平衡增长路径的影响并利用外生冲击对两者进行脉冲响应分析,探究了影响经济动态效率的因素,给出了相应的政策分析。
In order to test whether China’s rapidly growing economy is dynamic and efficient and to promote the transformation and upgrading of its economic structure, this paper extends the research paradigm of economic dynamic efficiency to the micro level by establishing a new Keynesian DSGE model with price-stick mechanism. Based on consumption and capital Dynamic evolution path to deduce the capital accumulation level and gold law level on the path of balanced growth as a criterion for judging economic dynamic efficiency; and using the data from 1978 to 2007 in China to re-test the dynamic economic efficiency of China, empirical analysis found that China’s economic growth was in a dynamic and efficient stage before the 1990s. However, it was more dynamic and inefficient after the 1990s, especially after 1998. Finally, we simulated the impact of changes in parameters on the path of consumption and capital balance growth Exogenous impact on the two impulse response analysis to explore the factors that affect economic dynamic efficiency, and gives the corresponding policy analysis.