前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在手足口病早期预警中的应用

来源 :首都医科大学公共卫生学院第五届学术年会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:xia96316
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目的:探索前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在手足口病聚集性探测及其早期预警中的应用.方法:模拟实时监测系统,采用前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量对顺义区2012年手足口病例数据进行逐日前瞻性分析.结果:2012年共探测到9个手足口病聚集性预警信号,其中6个预警信号处于顺义区手足口病例上升期,紧随每次预警顺义区手足口病例都呈现快速上升趋势.其余3个信号强度较弱的预警均出现在手足口发病的最高峰时期.结论:利用前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量建立的早期预警系统,能有效地对传染病暴发做出早期预警.
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