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本文通过结构变点识别及误差修正模型等方法,研究不同阶段黄金抗通胀保值属性的变动规律。实证分析表明,黄金的抗通胀保值功能呈现阶段性特征,其受到美元指数、道琼斯指数、美国联邦基准利率和国际石油价格等因素影响的方式是变化的。本文认为,最新一阶段中黄金回归其货币属性的趋势进一步强化,说明目前黄金是规避信用货币贬值风险的良好投资选择。
In this paper, through structural change identification and error correction model and other methods to study the different stages of gold anti-inflation hedge property changes. Empirical analysis shows that the anti-inflation hedging function of gold is characterized by periodic characteristics, which are affected by the factors such as the dollar index, the Dow Jones index, the federal benchmark interest rate and the international oil price. This paper argues that the trend of returning gold to its monetary attributes in the latest phase is further strengthened, indicating that gold is currently a good investment choice to avoid the risk of credit currency devaluation.