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利用1985-2005年天水市3个不同气候区气象、冬小麦条锈病病叶率和严重度等资料分析得出:天水条锈病菌主要在海拔1 300m以上区域潜育越夏,1 900m以下区域安全越冬;该地既有自生菌源,又有来自陕西宝鸡至甘肃陇南徽成盆地和西汉水流域流行区域菌源病菌的随风漂移侵入。锈病菌源量与严重度秋季以中南部山区最大,春季则以中部河谷半山-干旱区最大。统计分析建立了冬小麦条锈病预测预报数学模型,其历史拟合率达85%以上,其中重度半大流行发生年份历史拟合率在90%以上,预报准确率较高,服务效果显著,为冬小麦条锈病发生发展的气象预测预报和科学防治提供了依据。
According to the data of leaf rate and severity of stripe rust in winter wheat from 1985 to 2005 in three climatic regions of Tianshui city, the results showed that the stripe rust of stripe rust was mainly in the areas above 1300m above sea level, Overwintering. In this area, there are both introgression bacteria sources and invaders with wind-borne pathogens from the endemic areas in Baoji, Shaanxi Province, Huicheng Basin, Longnan, Gansu, and the prevailing areas in the Western Han River Basin. Source and severity of rust sources The autumn is dominated by mountainous areas in central and southern China, while the springtime is dominated by the mid-valley in central China - the largest in arid regions. The mathematical model of winter wheat stripe rust prediction and forecast was established by statistical analysis. The historical fitting rate was over 85%. The annual history fitting rate of severe semi-major epidemic was over 90%, the prediction accuracy was high and the service effect was significant. The occurrence and development of stripe rust meteorological forecast and scientific prevention provided the basis.