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目的分析2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险大小。方法采用Moran′s I统计指数的方法来分析2013-2014年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的年均发病率的空间自相关特性,并用贝叶斯层次模型来预测2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险大小。结果 2013年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的发病率为0.02/10万~1.44/10万,2014年发病率为0.03/10万~2.32/10万。2013-2014年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的年均发病率存在空间正相关性,因为它们的Moran′s I统计指数值均>0,均P<0.05,空间点模式为聚集分布。2013年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的相对风险值为7.24~354.80,2014年的相对风险值为6.13~318.60。2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险相对高的地区数量相对于2013年有所减少,暴发人感染H7N9流感病毒风险的最大值和最小值也有所下降。结论 2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险呈降低趋势。
Objective To analyze the risk of human infection with H7N9 influenza virus in various regions of China during 2013-2014. Methods The Moran’s I index was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of annual incidence of human H7N9 influenza virus in China from 2013 to 2014. The bayesian hierarchical model was used to predict the annual incidence of H7N9 influenza in China from 2013 to 2014 The risk of human infection with H7N9 influenza virus occurs. Results The incidence of human H7N9 influenza virus infection in various regions of China in 2013 was 0.02 / 100,000 to 1.44 / 100,000 and the incidence in 2014 was 0.03 / 100,000 to 2.32 / 100,000. The annual average incidence of H7N9 influenza virus infection in all regions of China from 2013 to 2014 was positively correlated because their Moran’s I statistical indices were all> 0, both P <0.05, and the spatial point pattern was aggregated. In 2013, the relative risk of human infection with H7N9 influenza virus in various regions of China was between 7.24 and 354.080, and the relative risk between 2014 and 2013 was between 6.13 and 318.60. In 2014, the risk of human infection with H7N9 influenza virus was relatively high in all regions of China The decrease in the number relative to 2013 also led to a decrease in the maximum and minimum risk of outbreaks of the H7N9 influenza virus. Conclusions The incidence of human H7N9 influenza virus infection in all regions of China in 2013-2014 shows a decreasing trend.