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应用简单催化模型和可逆催化模型拟合贵州省黔西南州结核自然感染率资料,估算模型方程分别为:y=0.37308(1-e～(-0.02643 t)和y=0.37305(1-e～(-0.02643 t)。椐本文资料,两种模型的拟合精度较好,理论感染率与实际自然感染率接近。以可逆催化模型的数据,运用Kermack-Mckendrick阈定理,计算出防止该地结核病流行的卡介苗最低接种率为85.1％。
Using simple catalytic model and reversible catalytic model to fit the natural infection rate data of tuberculosis in Qianxinan Prefecture of Guizhou Province, the estimated model equations are as follows: y = 0.37308 (-0.02643 t) and y = 0.37305 (1-e ~ -0.02643 t) .This article data, the fitting accuracy of the two models is good, the theoretical infection rate and the actual natural infection rate close.Reversible catalytic model data, the use of Kermack-Mckendrick threshold theorem, calculated to prevent the tuberculosis epidemic The lowest BCG vaccination rate was 85.1%.