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目的应用多元线性回归构建基于气象因素的上海市金山区手足口病预测模型。方法收集上海市金山区2010-2013年手足口病逐日发病人数与包括日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温、日最低相对湿度、日平均相对湿度、日平均气压、日降水量、日平均日照时数、日平均风速在内的9种同期气象资料进行相关分析,并选择相关系数有显著性的气象因素进行手足口病的逐步回归模型构建。结果手足口病发病人数与日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温、日平均相对湿度、日最低相对湿度呈正相关性(P<0.05),与日平均气压、日平均风速呈负相关性(P<0.05)。最终有日平均气压、日平均风速和日最高气温进入模型,回归系数分别为-0.129、-0.299和-0.039,且容忍度与方差膨胀因子均显示模型不存在严重的多重共线性。结论基于气象因素的上海市金山区手足口病预测模型解释性拟合程度较好,可用于短期预测。
Objective To establish a prediction model of HFMD in Jinshan District of Shanghai based on meteorological factors by using multiple linear regression. Methods The daily incidence of HFMD in 2010-2013 in Jinshan District of Shanghai was collected, including daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily mean temperature, daily minimum relative humidity, daily average relative humidity, daily mean air pressure, daily precipitation, daily average Sunshine hours, daily average wind speed, nine kinds of meteorological data of the same period were analyzed, and the correlation coefficient was significant meteorological factors for the step-by-step regression model of HFMD. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease was positively correlated with daily maximum air temperature, daily minimum air temperature, daily mean air temperature, daily average relative humidity and daily minimum relative humidity (P <0.05), negatively correlated with daily mean air pressure and daily mean wind speed P <0.05). Finally, daily mean air pressure, daily mean wind speed and daily maximum air temperature entered the model, and the regression coefficients were -0.129, -0.299 and -0.039, respectively. Both tolerance and variance expansion factor showed that there was no serious multicollinearity in the model. Conclusions The hand-foot-mouth disease prediction model based on meteorological factors in Jinshan District of Shanghai is better fitted for short-term prediction.