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本文是在国家科委“七·五”软科学研究课题《京、津地区水资源预测与管理的研究》的子课题研究的基础上编写的。根据课题研究内容,研制了:由农业发展预测投入产出模型、农村可用水资源优化分配模型和动态经济分析模型组合而成的农村供水数学模型体系;给出了计算机程序软件;在搜集、分析了大量数据资料基础上通过多类别方案设计并经多次计算,对系统进行了广泛分析;提出了天津市农业发展预测和分步骤农村供水对策建议,从而为决策部门提供了决策依据。
This article is written on the basis of the sub-topics of “7 · 5” soft science research project “Research on Water Resources Prediction and Management in Beijing and Tianjin Region”. According to the research contents of the project, the mathematical model of rural water supply system is established, which is composed of agricultural output forecasting model, optimal distribution model of available water resources in rural areas and dynamic economic analysis model. Computer software is given. Based on a large amount of data and data, the system was extensively analyzed through multi-category design and multiple calculations. The forecast of agricultural development in Tianjin and the proposal of step-by-step rural water supply were put forward, which provided the decision-making basis for the decision-making department.