论文部分内容阅读
目的应用ARIMA模型预测探索邯郸市手足口病疫情,为该市手足口病的预测和预警提供科学依据。方法用SPSS 13.0建立2010-2015年邯郸市手足口病逐月疫情资料数据库,用ARIMA相关模型进行建模拟合并进行预测分析。结果 ARIMA(0,1,0)×(2,2,0)12能较好地拟合疫情数据,以此模型预测2016年1~8月疫情,可见模型拟合效果很好,预测的动态趋势与实际情况基本一致。结论 ARIMA模型可以很好地拟合邯郸市手足口病发病数的变化趋势,可用来预测未来疫情,为手足口病防控工作提供依据。
Objective To explore the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease in Handan by using ARIMA model and to provide a scientific basis for the prediction and early-warning of hand-foot-mouth disease in this city. Methods SPSS 13.0 was used to establish monthly epidemic data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Handan City from 2010 to 2015. The data were simulated by ARIMA model and predicted. Results ARIMA (0,1,0) × (2,2,0) 12 could fit epidemic situation data well and predict the epidemic situation from January to August in 2016. It can be seen that the model fitting effect is good and the predicted dynamic Trend and the actual situation is basically the same. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well fit the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Handan City. It can be used to predict the future epidemic situation and provide basis for hand-foot-mouth disease prevention and control.