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目的:探讨消化性溃疡发病与气象因子的关系 方法:统计1992/1997年南宁市17家医院消化内镜检查的104121例胃镜资料,检出消化性溃疡24252例。计算出消化性溃疡逐月逐句逐候的内镜检出率,再将其与南宁同期四季气象进行相关分析,与同期7类气象因子进行逐月、逐旬、逐候多元回归相关分析,根据前一月、旬、候的气象因子建立预报模型,并将实测值与预报值进行比较验证。 结果:在6a中11mo-4mo消化性溃疡月平均检出率24.2％-28.8％,峰值在1mo(28.8％),5mo-10mo的月平均检出率为20.0％-22.6％,谷值在6mo(20.0％),检出率冬季>春季>夏秋季(p<0.005)。检出率与同期月、旬、候平均气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8704,-0.6624,-0.5384,p值均<0.01;与平均最高气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8000,-0.6470,-0.5167,p值均<0.01;与平均最低气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8091,-0.6617,-0.5384,P值均<0.01;与平均露点温度的相关系数分别为-0.7812,-0.6246,-0.4936,p值均<0.01;与同期月、旬、候平均气压值的相关系数分别为0.7320,0.5777,0.4579,p值均<0.01。前一月、旬、候的平均气温值、平均最高气温值、平均最低气温值、平均气压值、平均露点温度值,对消化性溃疡发病预报价值大,实测值和预报值相符率分别为71.8％,67.9％,66.6％。 结论:消
Objective: To study the relationship between the incidence of peptic ulcer and meteorological factors.Methods: 104121 gastroscopy data of digestive endoscopy in 17 hospitals of Nanning from 1992 to 1997 were collected, 24252 cases of peptic ulcer were detected. The endoscopic detection rate of peptic ulcer was calculated month by month and then correlated with the four seasons meteorological data of Nanning over the same period. The seven meteorological factors were analyzed monthly, Based on the meteorological factors of the previous month, the last ten days and the future, a forecasting model is established, and the actual value and the forecast value are compared and verified. Results: The mean monthly detection rate of peptic ulcer in 11mo-4mo in 6a was 24.2% -28.8%, the peak was in 1mo (28.8%), the average monthly detection rate was 20.0% -22.6% in 5mo-10mo, (20.0%), the detection rate of winter> spring> summer and autumn (p <0.005). The correlation coefficients between the detection rate and the mean monthly temperature at the same period were -0.8704, -0.6624 and -0.5384, respectively, and the p values were all less than 0.01. The correlation coefficients with the mean maximum air temperature were -0.8000 and -0.6470, respectively. 0.5167, both p <0.01; the correlation coefficients with the average minimum temperature were -0.8091, -0.6617, -0.5384, P <0.01; the correlation coefficient with the average dew point temperature were -0.7812, -0.6246, -0.4936 , p <0.01 respectively. The correlation coefficients with monthly average air pressure, air temperature and air temperature at the end of the same period were 0.7320, 0.5777 and 0.4579, respectively, with p <0.01. The average temperature, average maximum air temperature, average minimum air temperature, mean air pressure and average dew point temperature of the previous month, the last ten days and the waiting time are large in the forecast value of the incidence of peptic ulcer and the coincidence rates of the measured value and the forecast value are respectively 71.8 %, 67.9%, 66.6%. Conclusion: elimination