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构建了面板门槛模型,利用中国2000—2015年的省级面板数据,从污染排放度和政府干预程度的门槛效应出发,就污染排放度对地区经济发展的效应进行实证分析。研究发现:第一,污染排放度对地区经济发展的影响存在一个门槛效应,即当污染排放度大于高门槛值时,其对经济发展产生负影响。经济发展初期,经济的快速发展在一定程度上可以弥补环境污染的成本;但随着经济发展水平的提高,经济发展速度将放缓,而此时污染排放度对经济发展效应为负。第二,政府干预程度大于0.206时,会使污染排放度对地区经济发展的影响为负。在市场失灵的情况下,特别是环境污染等外部性问题,政府一定程度的干预是有效的,但过度的政府干预却造成污染排放度对地区经济增长有较大的负影响。
Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, the panel threshold model was constructed. Based on the threshold effect of pollution emission and government intervention, empirical analysis was made on the effect of pollution discharge on regional economic development. The findings are as follows: Firstly, there is a threshold effect on the impact of pollution discharge on regional economic development. That is, when the pollution discharge degree is greater than the high threshold, it will have a negative impact on economic development. In the early stage of economic development, the rapid economic development can make up for the cost of environmental pollution to some extent. However, with the improvement of economic development, the pace of economic development will slow down while the effect of pollution discharge on economic development will be negative. Second, when the degree of government intervention is greater than 0.206, the impact of pollution discharge on regional economic development will be negative. In the case of market failure, especially environmental issues such as environmental pollution, the government intervention to some extent is effective, but excessive government intervention has resulted in pollution emissions have a greater negative impact on regional economic growth.