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通过美国国家环境预报中心NCEP再分析资料和泾河流域10个气象站的历史降水及蒸发资料,采用逐步回归法建立了降水、蒸发统计降尺度模型,利用TOPMODEL模型模拟了未来时期的径流量,分析了泾河流域未来的径流变化趋势。模拟结果表明:基于逐步回归法的降尺度模型与TOPMODEL模型的结合能较好地分析未来径流变化;未来时期的降水量和蒸发量呈现增大趋势;在RCP4.5情景下,年径流呈现先增大后减少再增大的趋势。在RCP8.5情景下,年径流呈现增大的趋势。
Based on the NCEP reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Preservation and the historical precipitation and evaporation data of 10 meteorological stations in the Jinghe River Basin, a statistical model for precipitation and evaporation reduction was established by stepwise regression, and the runoff in the future was simulated by TOPMODEL model. The future trend of runoff in Jinghe River Basin is analyzed. The simulation results show that the combination of the downscaling model and the TOPMODEL model based on the stepwise regression method can better analyze the future runoff changes; the precipitation and evaporation in the future show an increasing trend; in the case of RCP4.5, the annual runoff presents first Increase and then reduce and then increase the trend. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, annual runoff tends to increase.