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目的了解天津市红桥区2008-2012年麻疹流行病学特征并做出趋势预测,为制定和调整麻疹的预防控制策略提供科学依据。方法对天津市红桥区2008-2012年麻疹疫情资料进行描述性流行病学分析。采用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行趋势预测。结果天津市红桥区2008-2012年红桥区共报告麻疹发病147例。年平均发病率3.44/10万。发病时间主要集中在3~5月,无死亡病例。和天津市平均发病率相比,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。不同年份不同年龄组之间差别有统计学意义(P<0.05)。应用模型进行外推预测,第8次流行在第13年左右即2014年,第9次流行在第17年左右即2018年。结论提高麻疹疫苗覆盖率,加强流动人口麻疹的预防控制,对高危人群开展麻疹疫苗普种和应急接种。通过暴发流行时间的预测,把握住疫情动态趋势,随时调整工作重点,为制定防控对策提供科学依据。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of measles from 2008 to 2012 in Hongqiao District of Tianjin and to make trend forecast so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating and adjusting measles prevention and control strategies. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis of measles data in Hongqiao District of Tianjin from 2008 to 2012 was conducted. The gray model GM (1,1) is used to forecast the trend. Results A total of 147 measles cases were reported in Hongqiao District of Tianjin from 2008 to 2012. The average annual incidence of 3.44 / 100000. The onset time is mainly concentrated in 3 to 5 months, no deaths. Compared with the average incidence of Tianjin, the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05). The difference between different age groups was statistically significant (P <0.05). Extrapolation is predicted using the model, with the eighth being around the thirteenth year or 2014, the ninth being around the 17th or 2018. Conclusion Increasing the coverage of measles vaccine, strengthening the prevention and control of measles in floating population and carrying out universal vaccination and emergency vaccination of measles vaccine in high-risk population. Through the outbreak of epidemic time forecast, grasp the dynamic trend of epidemic situation, adjust the work focus at any time, to provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention and control measures.