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目的以福建省人群食用牡蛎引起副溶血性弧菌(VP)胃肠炎的风险为例,介绍一种快速的风险评估工具(sQMRA)在微生物定量风险评估中的应用。方法利用《2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查》结果、文献报告和经验推断等方式,对福建省2008年9—11月牡蛎的消费量和零售阶段VP的污染水平、交叉污染和烹制对VP菌落数的影响等共11个参数进行了推算和引用。结果计算得到福建省2008年9—11月VP的感染人数为10 221人,其中有1 022人罹患VP胃肠炎,推算得到的VP胃肠炎的发病概率为2.8×10-5,与人群监测推算的VP胃肠炎发病概率3.8×10-5结果较为接近。结论 sQMRA是一种快速简便有效的微生物定量风险评估工具。
Objective To investigate the risk of gastroenteritis caused by consumption of oyster in Vibrio vulnificus in Fujian Province for example, and to introduce the application of a rapid risk assessment tool (sQMRA) in quantitative risk assessment of microorganisms. Methods Based on the findings of “Survey on Nutrition and Health Status of Chinese People in 2002”, literature reports and empirical inference, this paper analyzed the pollution level, cross contamination and cooking of VP in consumption and retail stages of Fujian oysters from September to November in 2008 VP colonies and other effects of a total of 11 parameters were estimated and cited. Results The number of infected persons in Fujian from September to November in 2008 was 10 221, including 1 022 patients with VP gastroenteritis. The estimated incidence of VP gastroenteritis was 2.8 × 10 -5, which was in agreement with the population Probable risk of VP gastroenteritis survey 3.8 × 10-5 results are more similar. Conclusion sQMRA is a quick and easy tool for quantitative risk assessment of microorganisms.