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一、平均数预测法的意义 在同质总体中,各单位按照某一数量标志计算的不同标志值的一般水平,被称为平均数。它表明大量现象和过程的一种集中趋势,消除了其中的偏大或偏小、偏高或偏低、偏上或偏下等离散情况,从而能说明其一般水平或本质水平,便于人们认识客观事物。从计算平均数的方法来看,常用的有算术平均数、几何平均数、调和平均数、移动平均数、指数平滑平均数等多种。在经济预测中,这些方法如果运用得当,都能得到较好的结果。例如,有些商品的销售量就可以采用简单算术平均法进行预测,即将若干
First, the significance of the average forecasting method In the homogeneous overall, each unit calculated according to a certain number of signs of the general value of different signs, known as the average. It shows a concentrated tendency of a large number of phenomena and processes, eliminating some of them large or small, high or low, upper or lower and other discrete situations, which can explain the general level or nature, to facilitate people to recognize objective matters. From the method of calculating the average point of view, there are commonly used arithmetic mean, geometric average, harmonic average, moving average, exponential smoothing averages and so on. In economic forecasting, these methods, if used properly, will yield better results. For example, sales of some products can be predicted using simple arithmetic averaging,