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一、七十年代以来,世界进入了一个新的发展周期.与发展中国家的工业化过程并行,发达国家开始出现信息和以信息技术革命为主要内容的后工业化浪潮,在全球出现了两个周期并行、交叉、重合的局面. 自工业革命以来全球的经济发展一般以50年为一个长周期,此周期以新产品和新的生产系统从其中心(即发明地)向外扩散为始点,以扩散到工业化世界的外围地区为终点.就是说,新产品和与其相对应的新生产系统从发明起到在整个工业化世界普及为止,一般经过50年的周期.因此,本世纪二十年代到七十年代为止的50年是耐用消费品以及与其相对应的由自动化工厂(使用传送带,最初出现于美国)组成的新生产系统的发展周期.这是就整个工业化世界而言的,在某些高度发达国家,如美国、西欧和日本各国,此周期结束于60年代末期;而对发展中国家而言,则尚滞留在成长、甚或起步阶段.
Since the 1970s, the world has entered a new cycle of development. In parallel with the industrialization of developing countries, the wave of post-industrialization with information and information technology revolutions in developed countries began to emerge. There have been two cycles in the world Parallelism, overlap and overlap, the global economic development since the Industrial Revolution generally took 50 years as a long cycle starting from the outward diffusion of new products and new production systems from its center (that is, invention) The end of the outskirts of the industrialized world is that new products and their corresponding new production systems, which range from inventions to the popularity of the entire industrialized world, generally go through a period of 50 years.Therefore, from the 1920s to the seven The 50 years from the decade to the end of the decade were the cycle of development of durable consumer goods and their corresponding new production systems, which consisted of automated factories (using conveyor belts, first appearing in the United States), in the context of the entire industrialized world. In some highly developed Countries, such as the United States, Western Europe and Japan, ended the period in the late 1960s; for developing countries, they are still stuck in growth, Or infancy.