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目的探索ARIMA模型在常德市痢疾预测中的应用,为常德市痢疾防治提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS13.0软件对常德市2000-2010年痢疾月发病数据进行模型拟合,用2011年的发病数据验证模型预测效果,对2012年1-12月的痢疾发病数进行预测。结果 ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12模型能较好地拟合2005-2010年常德市痢疾月发病情况,用2011年数据验测模型预测效果,全年预测误差仅为3.43%,对2012年月发病数的预测符合实际发病变动趋势。结论 ARIMA模型是一种行之有效的预测方法,可以用于常德市痢疾发病的预测。
Objective To explore the application of ARIMA model in dysentery prediction in Changde City and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment of dysentery in Changde City. Methods SPSS13.0 software was used to model the monthly incidence of dysentery from 2000 to 2010 in Changde City. The data of 2011 were used to validate the predictive value of the model, and the incidence of dysentery from January to December in 2012 was predicted. Results The ARIMA (2,1,0) (0,1,1) 12 model could well fit the monthly incidence of dysentery in Changde City from 2005 to 2010, and the data was used to predict the effect of the data in 2011, and the annual prediction error was only Was 3.43%. The forecast of the number of monthly incidence in 2012 was in line with the trend of actual incidence change. Conclusion ARIMA model is an effective prediction method, which can be used to predict the incidence of dysentery in Changde City.