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“没有想象那般好,也未必如想象那般坏。”这是华泰柏瑞基金柳军先生对今年投资形势的判断。就笔者的感觉来看,也是如此。比如,过去风风火火的房地产,近来则是降价声声;春节期间还在狂欢的余额宝,这几天也是哀鸿遍野。年前还在呼呼上扬的股市,近几天也是毫无起色。不可否认,从过去引领中国经济快速增长的地产周期来讲,中国已开始步入地产周期的尾声。适度从紧的货币政策已执行有2-3年的时间;经济增速也从过去的两位数增长进入到7-8左右的平台区间;通货膨胀指标也进入长期均衡水平;工业出厂价格指数连续20多个月处于负值;上市公司整体盈利增速下降:整个宏观经济的基本面也难以找到支撑指数走强的动力。
"This is Huarui Bairui Fund Mr. Liu Jun judgment of the investment situation this year. In my opinion, the same is true. For example, in the past the stormy real estate, the recent price cut is sound; still during the Spring Festival carnival treasure, these days are also awe-inspiring. The stock market still whistling years ago did not improve in recent days. It is undeniable that from the past leading the rapid growth of China’s real estate cycle, China has begun to enter the end of the real estate cycle. Moderately tight monetary policy has been implemented for 2-3 years; the economic growth has also gone from double-digit growth in the past to a platform of around 7-8; inflation indicators have also entered a long-term equilibrium; the industrial producer price index For more than 20 consecutive months at a negative value; the overall earnings growth of listed companies decreased: the fundamentals of the macroeconomic can hardly find a strong impetus to support the index.