【摘 要】
：
制造业是吸纳中国就业的重要载体.随着全球价值链的纵深发展和国内要素成本上升,中国制造业布局发生变化,必然对就业产生不可忽视的影响.本文基于WIOD数据库,运用多区域投入产出模型,分析2009-2014年中国制造业布局变迁的特征及其就业效应,并运用结构分解法探讨引起就业变动的不同路径.研究结果表明,中国制造业总体呈现少量转出、大量流入的转移特征,纸制品制造业和家具制造业等低技术制造部门对外转移的同时,化学品制造业和计算机、电子和光学产品制造业等高技术制造部门不断涌入,中国制造业呈现不断高级化的趋势.就中国制
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制造业是吸纳中国就业的重要载体.随着全球价值链的纵深发展和国内要素成本上升,中国制造业布局发生变化,必然对就业产生不可忽视的影响.本文基于WIOD数据库,运用多区域投入产出模型,分析2009-2014年中国制造业布局变迁的特征及其就业效应,并运用结构分解法探讨引起就业变动的不同路径.研究结果表明,中国制造业总体呈现少量转出、大量流入的转移特征,纸制品制造业和家具制造业等低技术制造部门对外转移的同时,化学品制造业和计算机、电子和光学产品制造业等高技术制造部门不断涌入,中国制造业呈现不断高级化的趋势.就中国制造业布局变迁的就业效应而言,对家具制造业和纺织品、服装和皮革制造业等低技术制造业的冲击较为明显.从不同影响路径来看,中国制造业布局变动对就业的影响主要是由国内中间产品、国外中间产品生产外移和国内最终产品生产外移引致.从不同技能水平的就业人员来看,低技能劳动者是受制造业布局调整影响的重点群体.最后,本文从推动产业转型升级和提高劳动者综合素质方面提出政策建议,以期从稳定就业的角度为应对中国制造业布局变化提供参考.
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