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房地产业是关系我国国计民生的支柱性产业,利率是一项重要的宏观调控指标。本文运用经济学相关理论、计量经济学模型和统计软件Eviews5.0,利用2007年1月至2010年3月间的相关月度数据,对我国利率与房地产市场之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,我国利率与房地产市场在长期存在协整关系,利率可以作为引致房地产市场变化的原因,然而,这种影响是不灵敏的并且是滞后的,同时,利率的变化并不显著受房地产市场变动的影响,两者互动不足。因此,要实现利率与房地产市场的良好互动以及房地产市场的健康稳定发展,除了要继续加快利率市场化的进程,更应发挥政府的作用,做好房地产市场发展规划、加大经济适用房和廉租房的供给、完善市场监管制度以及引导理性投资。
The real estate industry is a pillar industry that affects China's national economy and people's livelihood. Interest rate is an important macro-control indicator. In this paper, using economics related theory, econometric model and statistical software Eviews5.0, using the monthly data from January 2007 to March 2010, the empirical analysis of the interaction between China's interest rate and the real estate market. The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between interest rate and real estate market in our country. Interest rate can be the reason of the change of real estate market. However, this effect is insensitive and lagged. Meanwhile, the change of interest rate is not significantly affected by the real estate market The impact of change, the interaction between the two deficiencies. Therefore, in order to achieve a good interaction between interest rates and the real estate market and a healthy and stable development of the real estate market, we must continue to speed up the process of marketization of interest rates. We should give full play to the role of the government, make plans for the development of the real estate market, Supply of housing, improve the market supervision system and guide rational investment.