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文章采用系统动力学原理和方法,从投入与产出角度提出了卫生业与医药制造业发展的互动机理及其动力模型。根据我国1992年至2007年卫生业、医药制造业及宏观经济发展的历史数据,模拟和预测了我国卫生业、医药制造业发展现状及发展趋势;分别改变卫生业及医药制造业劳动、资金投入等参数,模拟并预测了其对两产业产值的影响效应。设定金融危机对卫生业与医药制造业的影响参数,并模拟卫生业增加761.376亿元投资时对两产业的拉动效应。、研究结果证明,卫生业与医药制造业发展互动影响效应明显;在金融危机情形下,对卫生业增加投资,能有效促进卫生业及医药制造业等关联产业的持续增长,促进GDP的持续增长。对于卫生政策研究具有重要的参考价值。
In this paper, the principles and methods of system dynamics are used to propose the interactive mechanism and dynamic model of the development of health industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing from the perspective of input and output. According to the historical data of health industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and macroeconomic development from 1992 to 2007 in our country, we simulated and predicted the status quo and development trend of health industry and medical manufacturing industry in our country; respectively changed the labor and capital investment in the health industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry And other parameters to simulate and predict the impact on the output value of the two industries. Set the parameters of the impact of the financial crisis on the health industry and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and simulated the pulling effect on the two industries when the health sector increased its investment by 76.1376 billion yuan. The results of the study show that the interaction between the health industry and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is significant. Under the financial crisis, increasing investment in the health industry can effectively promote the sustained growth of related industries such as health and pharmaceutical manufacturing and promote the continuous growth of GDP . For health policy research has important reference value.