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本文基于经济周期理论,借助HP滤波法从总体和结构两个角度分析了中国的出口增长波动,结果表明:中国出口波动中,原料密集型产品出口增长速度最慢,劳动密集型产品出口增长持续性最强;资本密集型产品出口增长扩张收缩能力最强,增长最不稳定;易模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长最快,难模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长速度较快。总出口增长波动和上述五类产品出口增长波动之间存在长期均衡关系。
Based on the economic cycle theory, this paper analyzes the fluctuation of China’s export growth from the overall and the structural perspective with HP filter method. The results show that the export growth of raw material-intensive products is the slowest and the export of labor-intensive products continues to grow in the fluctuation of China’s exports The strongest; the growth of capital-intensive products is the strongest in expansion and contraction and the most unstable in growth; the exports of R & D-intensive products with the fastest growth rate and the exports of R & D-intensive products with rapid growth are growing faster. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between fluctuations in total export growth and fluctuations in the growth of exports of the above five categories of products.