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利用扩展BurrⅫ分布构建了改进的广义帕累托分布模型—MGPD模型(Meliorated Generalized Pareto Distribution),由此得到了地质灾害损失的在险风险值和最大可能损失估计值。以湖南省娄底市地质灾害损失数据实证分析,结果显示:MGPD模型在刻画地质灾害损失数据时,比GPD模型的精度更高,具有更广泛的适用性。
By using the extended BurrⅫ distribution, an improved generalized Pareto Distribution (MPGPD) model is constructed, and the on-risk risk value and the maximum possible loss estimate of geological disaster loss are obtained. Taking the data of geological disaster loss in Loudi City of Hunan Province as an example, the results show that the MGPD model is more accurate than GPD model in describing the data of geological disasters loss, and has a wider range of applicability.