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动荡在任何时候或任何地点,都可能会以任何形式不期而至,造成混乱,并以高层管理者无法觉察的方式破坏企业这个时代,传统的三年期战略计划已不合时宜,也变得毫无价值。事实上,传统的战略需要精确的预测。这通常会使高管们低估不确定性和混乱,而这些不确定性和混乱,是由难以预料和反复出现的动荡引发的。现在的特征是以进发式出现的繁荣和衰退为重点的一种新“常态”。过去,常态就像小鸟在天空滑翔一样逐步升降,有时向上翱翔,有时又向下俯冲,但总是姿态优雅,操控有度。然而,在动荡时代,这些光滑的轨迹上,将会有更多突然的、不稳定的改变。只有那些最为警觉的、早期预警系统已经到位的企业,会觉察到这些动荡。而有些动荡将完全不会被发现,或者在混乱开始以后才被发现——当然,这种动荡即使是最警觉
At any time or anywhere, the turmoil may come in any form, cause confusion and undermine the enterprise in such a way that top managers can not detect it. The traditional three-year strategic plan is out of date and it becomes No value. In fact, traditional strategies require precise predictions. This often leads executives to underestimate the uncertainties and chaos that have been triggered by unpredictable and recurring turmoil. The current feature is a new “normality” focused on the emergence and decline of the adventitious system. In the past, the norm has moved up and down like a bird gliding in the sky, sometimes flying upwards and sometimes downwards, but always with grace and control. However, in the turbulent times, there will be more sudden and unstable changes in these smooth trajectories. Only the most vigilant companies that have early warning systems in place are aware of the turmoil. And some turmoil will not be discovered at all, or only after the chaos begins - and of course the turmoil is even the most alarming