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结合定值法和不确定方法,研究了边坡稳定性因素的敏感性及参数对可靠度的影响规律。在GeoStudio有限元应力法的基础上,提出一种新的耦合分析方法对均质边坡进行敏感性分析;根据定值法分析结果,采用蒙特卡罗法研究了不同随机变量的变异性和强度参数相关性对可靠度的影响规律。结果表明,边坡稳定性影响因素的敏感性顺序依次为:粘聚力、内摩擦角、坡高、容重和坡角。可靠度指标和失效概率随变异系数及c-φ相关系数的变化呈现规律性。假设参数变异性一定时,将敏感性较大的因素作为随机变量,计算得到的可靠度指标较小,失效概率较大。因此在可靠性分析之前进行因素的敏感性分析,再根据参数变异性及相关性对可靠指标的影响规律选取随机变量,分析结果更合理。
Combining the fixed value method and the uncertain method, the sensitivity of the slope stability factor and the influence law of the parameter on the reliability are studied. Based on GeoStudio finite element stress method, a new coupling analysis method is proposed to analyze the sensitivity of homogeneous slope. According to the results of fixed value method, the variability and intensity of different random variables are studied by Monte-Carlo method. The Influence of Parameter Correlation on Reliability. The results show that the sensitivity of slope stability factors in order of order: cohesion, internal friction angle, slope height, bulk density and slope angle. The reliability index and probability of failure showed regularity with the variation coefficient and c-φ correlation coefficient. Assuming a certain variability of parameters, taking the more sensitive factors as random variables, the calculated reliability index is smaller and the failure probability is larger. Therefore, the sensitivity analysis of the factors before the reliability analysis, and then according to the parameters of the variability and relevance of the reliable indicators of the law of random variables selected, the analysis results more reasonable.