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中俄原油管道(漠河—大庆段)穿越约500 km多年冻土区,沿线地形起伏,水系和沼泽发育,冻土工程地质条件复杂。管道服役性能的影响因素多样化。本文综合考虑了冻土条件,冻土与管道的相互作用等影响多年冻土区管道服役性能的6个方面,15个子项作为评价指标。运用层次分析法和模糊数学理论提出了多年冻土区输油管道服役性能的评价模型,及冻土区输油管道服役性能的评价方法。该方法考虑各子项的影响权重与层次关系,最终得到综合可靠度评价值。基于漠大线管道监测数据,应用模型对其服役性能的可靠度进行了评价。
The Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline (Mohe-Daqing section) traverses about 500 km of permafrost. The terrain fluctuates along the river and the swamps develop. The engineering geological conditions of the frozen soil are complex. The influencing factors of pipeline service performance are diversified. In this paper, six aspects affecting the service performance of the pipeline in permafrost regions, including the conditions of permafrost, the interaction between frozen soil and pipeline, and 15 sub-items are taken as evaluation indexes. Using AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, the evaluation model of service performance of oil pipeline in permafrost region and evaluation method of service performance of oil pipeline in permafrost region are put forward. The method takes into account the influence weight and hierarchy of each sub-item, and finally obtains the comprehensive reliability evaluation value. Based on the monitoring data of Mudan pipeline, the reliability of service performance was evaluated by application model.