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未来2-3年电力需求增长率呈递减趋势,但仍在10%以上。虽然2005—2007年电力产能进入高速投产期,增长率高于社会用电量增长速度,但到2007年电力缺口有重新扩大的可能,达到自然平衡状态的可能性不大。2005年电力行业收入增长速度为15%左右,2006—2007年在12%以上。受益于煤炭价格下降,从2005年下半年起火电行业的毛利率将大幅回升。脱硫安装成本呈下降趋势,差额毛利上升幅度较大。预计从2005年下半年起,未来3年电力行业净利润增速将逐步回升。通过国内相对估值和国际估值比较,我们认为电力行业合理的市盈率水平在16倍左右。虽然目前电力板块的整体市盈率水平高于合理市盈率水平,但是从2005—2007年的发展趋势看,电力板块市盈率呈下降的趋势。重点关注公司:华能国际、上海电力、国电电力、深能源
In the next 2-3 years, the growth rate of electricity demand will decrease, but it will still be above 10%. Although the power generation capacity in 2005-2007 has entered a period of high-speed commissioning and the growth rate is higher than the growth rate of electricity consumption in society, it is unlikely that the power gap will widen again in 2007 and reach a natural equilibrium. In 2005, the revenue growth rate of the power industry was about 15% and over 12% from 2006-2007. Benefit from the decline in coal prices, from the second half of 2005 thermal power industry gross profit margin will rebound sharply. Desulfurization installation costs showed a downward trend, margin margin increased margin. Expected from the second half of 2005, the next three years the power industry net profit growth will gradually pick up. Through the relative valuation of domestic and international valuation comparison, we believe that the power industry reasonable price-earnings ratio of about 16 times. Although the overall P / E ratio of the power sector is above the reasonable PE ratio, the P / E ratio of the power sector shows a downward trend from 2005-2007. Focus on the company: Huaneng Power International, Shanghai Power, State Power, Shenzhen Energy