论文部分内容阅读
基于系统动力学的视角对城市客运交通网络进行建模,以镇江市为案例对城市客运交通能源消耗和碳排放进行了预测,通过情景设置分析评估了该市在城市客运交通方面的节能减排潜力。结果显示:镇江市的低碳交通规划政策在节能减排方面效果显著,到2030年时将累计产生153.23万吨标准煤的节能量以及322.46万吨的二氧化碳减排量。其中,私家车是城市客运交通能源消耗和碳减排的首要贡献者,从2011年开始,公交车作为更节能的优先出行方式,其在能源消耗和碳排放方面超过出租车,位居第二。最后,根据研究结果,从改善居民出行方式、提高新能源汽车比例、提高城市交通管理能效与客运水平等方面对镇江市城市交通节能减排提出了建议。
Based on the perspective of system dynamics, the urban passenger transport network was modeled, the urban passenger transport energy consumption and carbon emissions were predicted using the case of Zhenjiang City, and the city’s energy consumption and emission reduction in urban passenger transport were evaluated through scenario analysis potential. The results show that the low-carbon transport planning policy in Zhenjiang has a significant effect on energy conservation and emission reduction. By 2030, it will generate a total of 1,523,300 tons of standard coal energy saving and 3.2246 million tons of carbon dioxide emission reduction. Among them, private cars are the major contributors to urban passenger transport energy consumption and carbon emission reductions. Since 2011, buses have been the more energy-efficient priority mode of transport, overtaking taxis for energy consumption and carbon emissions, ranking second . Finally, according to the results of the study, suggestions are put forward to improve energy saving and emission reduction of urban transportation in Zhenjiang from aspects of improving residents’ travel modes, raising the proportion of new energy vehicles, improving energy efficiency of urban traffic management and passenger transport.