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中国已经实行了30余年的计划生育政策,该政策在助推中国经济发展的同时,也是人口快速老化的总根源。伴随着人口预期寿命的提高,延迟退休年龄成为增加未来劳动力供给的一种手段,也在一定程度上为促进养老保险基金收支的平衡提供了可能。采用PROST模型在相关数据分析的基础上,对养老保险基金收支进行模拟预测,结果显示:延迟退休年龄尽管有助于推迟基金缺口到来的时间,但不能从根本上解决基金缺口问题。事实上较低的生育率使得中国劳动力在未来的供给有限,将无法维持基金的持续运行。最后分别从提高基金统筹层次、投资收益以及计划生育政策调整等方面进行对策研究。
China has implemented its family planning policy for more than 30 years. While this policy has boosted China's economic development, it is also the general source of rapid population aging. With the increase of population life expectancy, delaying the retirement age has become a means to increase the supply of future labor force, and to some extent, it is possible to promote the balance of income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund. The PROST model is used to simulate the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund based on the analysis of related data. The results show that although the delayed retirement age can delay the arrival of fund gap, it can not fundamentally solve the problem of fund gap. In fact, the low fertility rate will make China's labor supply limited in the future and will not be able to maintain the fund's continuous operation. Finally, the countermeasures are studied from the aspects of improving the level of fund coordination, investment returns and the adjustment of family planning policy.