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玉米螟的发生程度与越冬种群的天敌和虫源基数密切相关，对越冬种群影响比较大的天敌有玉米螟厉寄蝇、玉米螟长距茧峰、细菌和白僵菌。其中影响最大的是白僵菌，在５月末至６月下旬发病，寄生率在不同年度间变化很大，变化范围在４．５％～９０％以上，对虫源基数有重大影响。玉米螟大发生必须有足够的有效虫源，在吉林省一代为主的发生区，６月份的越冬虫量为有效虫源，在不考虑降雨的情况下，６月中旬的百秆活虫量与７月份性诱蛾量及秋季百株虫量均极显著相关（相关系数分别为０．７０２３和０．８６９．构成大发生的有效上源数至少为每百秆有３０头以上；７月份的累计单盆诱蛾量在３００头以上。ａｎｄｒ＝０．８６９ｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｌｙ）ｅｘｃｅｐｔｗｅａｔｈｅｒｆａｃｔｏｒ．Ｌａｒｖａｅｎｕｍｂｅｒｐｅｒ１００ｓｔａｌｋｉｎｍｉｄｄｌｅＪｕｎｅａｎｄａｄｕｌｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｔｒａｐｅｄｂｙｐｅｒｐｈｅｒｏｍｏｎｅｔｒａｐｉｎＪｕｌｙｉｓａｔｌｅａｓｔｏｖｅｒ３０ａｎｄ３００ｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｌｙｉｎｈｅａｖｙｅｍｅｒｇｅｎｃｙｙｅａｒｓ．Ｋｅｙｗｏｒｄｓ：Ｏｓｔｒｉｎｉａｆｕｒｎａｃａｌｉｓ；Ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔ；Ｎａｔｕｒａｌｅｎｅｍｙ
The occurrence of corn borer was closely related to the natural enemies and insect population base of overwintering population. The natural enemies of overwintering population were corn borer, flies, maize borer, long-distance cocoon peak, bacteria and Beauveria bassiana. Beauveria bassiana was the most influential one. Behavioral symptoms of Beauveria bassiana were observed at the end of May and the end of June. The parasitism rate varied greatly from year to year in 4.5% -90%, which had a significant impact on the base of insect population. Corn borers must have enough effective source of large insects, in Jilin Province, the generation of a dominant area, in June the amount of overwintering insect as an effective source of insects, without considering the case of rainfall in mid-June 100 live insects (P <0.05). The correlation coefficient was 0.7023 and 0.869, respectively. The effective upper source of occurrence of large-scale occurrence was at least 30 heads per 100 stalks and July. The cumulative number of single-trap moths in 300 or more.andr = 0.869respectively) exceptweatherfactor. Larvaenumberper100stalkinmiddleJuneandadultnumbertrapedbyperpheromonetrapinJulyisatleastover30and300respectivelyheavyemergencyyears. Keywords: Ostriniafurnacalis; Forecast; Naturalenemy