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2003年的中国经济在诸多悬念和争论中过去。尘埃落定,遭遇不速之客SARS突袭的中国经济仍将达到8.6％的增长,这超出了几乎所有业内人士的估计和业外人士的乐观预期。关于2004的中国经济,目前最大争论莫过于中国经济是否过热,以及增长动力是什么,是否可持续,业界人士最大担心则在于外资进入减少以及外部环境恶化可能导致的增长突然滑落。本文的看法是,中国目前经济增长受多重动力牵引,基本健康,总体判断已步入“中长增长周期”,2004年可能迎来低物价上升下的1997年以来最高经济增长记录,因此大局依然看好,但不免掩盖增长中的其他问题。在政策因对方面,应慎言经济过热,放缓重拳打压政策,着重于结构调整,并在注重经济增长质量上下功夫。
The Chinese economy in 2003 passed through many suspense and controversy. The dust settles and the unfortunate Chinese SARS raid will hit 8.6% of China’s economy, surpassing the estimates of almost all industry insiders and optimistic expectations from lay people. The biggest debate about China’s economy in 2004 is whether China’s economy is overheating or not, and whether its growth momentum is sustainable or not. The biggest worry for the industry is the sudden drop in growth caused by the decline in foreign investment and the worsening external environment. The article’s view is that China’s current economic growth is driven by multiple motives and is basically healthy and overall judgments have entered the “mid-to-long growth cycle.” In 2004, it may usher in the highest economic growth record since 1997 under low prices. Therefore, the overall situation remains unchanged Optimistic, but inevitably cover up other growth problems. Due to policy reasons, we should be cautious about overheating in the economy, slowing down the policy of suppressing the crackdown, focusing on structural adjustment and focusing on the quality of economic growth.