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近年来世界贸易有着较快的增 长,但国际商品市场继1995年价格出现转软和下跌后,1996年以来仍起伏不稳,未见多大起色。世界贸易和国际商品市场的发展前景如何?值得关注。 贸易格局和态势 预计随着西方经济的增长,世界贸易还将续有较快增长。据经合组织最近预计,1996年该组织成员国的平均经济增长率将约为2.1％,略高于上年的1.9％,1997年则将增达2.5％。鉴此,考虑到1995年下半年以来世界贸易增长已有减缓,预计1996年世界商品贸
In recent years, world trade has enjoyed rapid growth. However, after the prices of international commodities turned soft and fall in 1995, the international commodity market has seen some ups and downs since 1996, showing little improvement. What are the prospects for the development of world trade and international commodity markets? Trade Pattern and Situation Prediction With the growth of the western economy, world trade will continue to grow rapidly. According to the OECD’s recent forecast, the average rate of economic growth in member countries of the organization in 1996 will be about 2.1%, slightly higher than the 1.9% in the previous year and an increase of 2.5% in 1997. In view of this, taking into account the slowdown in the growth of world trade since the second half of 1995, it is estimated that in 1996 the World Trade and Goods