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本文按照多哈回合谈判农业最新草案中的关税-削减公式,对中国33章共711种HS6位码农产品的约束关税和实际关税进行模拟削减。结果显示,无论是贸易额加权后的约束关税还是实际关税都要下降37%左右,分别从16.18%、15.95%降到10.20%、10.11%。但如果中国政府充分利用WTO对发展中国家的“灵活性”政策定义某些敏感和特殊产品,那么削减幅度都会大幅减少,只有5%和3%左右,分别降到15.63%和15.42%。同时中国农产品面临的世界实际平均关税值也大幅下降,市场准入和出口的贸易空间将被扩展。
According to the tariff-reduction formula in the latest draft of the Doha round of negotiations, this paper simulates the binding tariffs and actual tariffs on 711 HS6-digit agricultural products in Chapter 33 in China. The results show that both the bound tariffs after the trade volume balance and the actual tariffs have dropped by about 37%, from 16.18% and 15.95% to 10.20% and 10.11% respectively. However, if the Chinese government makes full use of the WTO to define certain sensitive and special products for the “flexibility” of developing countries, the reduction will be substantially reduced, only to 5% and 3%, to 15.63% and 15.42% respectively, . At the same time, the world’s actual average tariffs on Chinese agricultural products have also dropped sharply, and the trade space for market access and exports will be expanded.