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在经济增长趋缓、猪肉等食品价格回调、前期紧缩政策持续作用下,上半年物价总水平上涨压力已明显缓解。经过计量模型拟合与预测,综合考虑供需结构性因素,预计今年物价水平总体较为平稳,呈现“两头高、中间低”走势,上半年CPI预计是3.4%,全年CPI预计是3.2%。即使考虑输入性通胀的不确定性以及公共事业价格调整等政策性涨价因素,今年物价水平也可以控制在4%以内。对今年价格调控工作的建议是,抓住难得的机遇期,把握节奏、积极推进价格调整与改革;监测重点商品库存和产量变化,防范输入性通胀反弹;完善农产品稳定供应保障机制,及时发布农业种养殖信息。
With the slowdown of economic growth and the price correction of pork and other food products, the pressure from the general price tightening in the first half of the year has eased. After the measurement model fitting and forecast, considering the structural factors of supply and demand, the overall price level is expected to be relatively stable this year with the trend of “high in both ends and low in the middle”. The CPI in the first half of the year is estimated to be 3.4% and the annual CPI is estimated to be 3.2% . Even taking into account the uncertainty of input inflation and the price adjustment of public utilities and other policy-related factors, the price level can be controlled within 4% this year. This year’s price adjustment work is to seize the rare opportunity to grasp the rhythm, and actively promote the price adjustment and reform; monitoring of key commodities inventory and output changes to prevent a rebound in imported inflation; improve the stability of agricultural supply security mechanism, timely release of agriculture Breeding information.