论文部分内容阅读
要点:2005年对其他基本金属来说已经可以认为是比较正常的年份,但锌市场因为基本面刚刚发生转折,国际锌价在2004年回升不多,将在2005年创出本周期的高峰,锌市场在寻常年度里将有不寻常的表现;世界经济虽然增长减缓,但仍保持较高速度增长,全球锌消费将保持4%以上的增长率,2005年全球锌市场将继续供应短缺;西方隐性库存已经消耗完毕,LME库存开始稳定下降,年底将接近正常水平,市场信心不断增强,锌价上升空间已经打开;一般情况下,国内消费将增长10%以上,这对国内外市场都是有力的支撑。然而,汇率和中国宏观经济政策的调整及其对中国和亚洲消费所产生的消极影响将增加锌市场乐观预测的风险。
Key points: In 2005, other basic metals can already be regarded as a more normal year. However, since the fundamentals have just changed, zinc market in the zinc market rebounded very little in 2004 and will hit the peak of this cycle in 2005, Zinc market will have unusual performance in unusual years; although the world economy slowed down, it maintained a high growth rate, the global zinc consumption will maintain a growth rate of over 4%, and the global zinc market will continue to supply shortages in 2005. The western Latent inventory has been depleted, LME stocks began to decline steadily, the end will be close to normal levels, increasing market confidence, zinc prices have opened up space; under normal circumstances, domestic consumption will grow by 10% or more, which are both domestic and foreign markets Strong support. However, the adjustment of exchange rates and China’s macroeconomic policies and their negative impact on consumption in China and Asia will increase the risk of optimistic forecasts in the zinc market.