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根据水文要素变化的规律，利用牡丹江站５８年实测水位资料，采用周期均值迭加法探求出牡丹江洪枯水变化规律，并预报出牡丹江１９９６年至２０００年洪峰水位。
According to the variation law of hydrological elements, using the measured water level data of 58 years at Mudanjiang Station, the variation law of floodwater in Mudanjiang River was explored by the periodic mean plus method, and the water level of flood peak in Mudanjiang River from 1996 to 2000 was predicted.