论文部分内容阅读
面对1998年亚洲金融危机,我国曾推动公路建设以拉动内需、提振经济;2008年危机再现,铁路建设提速弥补外需不足、刺激内需。公路经过黄金十年的发展,路网的完备以及经济趋缓均造成新增高速公路通行量上升缓慢、成熟高速通行量下行,贷款偿还困难导致各省建设主管部门负债率高企,进而拖累了公路建设进程。铁路则迎来了前所未有的发展良机,建设规划有望提前到2015年完成。但行业超常规发展也存在隐忧:运输标的不足导致盈利下滑、运力的局部平衡、全局过剩拖累未来盈利、资金缺口长期存在和市场化运营中存在的计划体制累积下游运营风险等。
In the face of the Asian financial crisis of 1998, China pushed forward with road construction to boost domestic demand and boost economy. In 2008, when the crisis reappeared, the railway construction accelerated to make up for lack of external demand and stimulate domestic demand. After decades of development of the Golden Road, the completeness of the road network and the slowing down of the economy have resulted in the slow increase of the newly-added expressways and the decline of mature high-speed traffic. As a result, the loan repayment difficulties have led to the high debt ratio of the competent construction departments in various provinces, which in turn has impaired road construction process. Railway ushered in an unprecedented opportunity for development, construction planning is expected to be completed by 2015. However, there are also hidden worries over the unconventional development of the industry: the lack of transport standard leads to the decline of profits and the partial balance of shipping capacity, the global surplus will drag on future profits, the long-term funding gap exists and the planned operation system exists in market-oriented operation accumulates downstream operational risks.