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20世纪80年代,有一些经济学家作出大胆的预测:世界经济中心将从美国向亚洲转移。在当时,这种预测可能太过超前,但是随着中国经济的崛起,这种预测受到越来越多的关注。1997年至2004年间,全球经济一直处于不稳定状态。其间,世界上交替出现了一系列的危机:三次新兴国家的经济危机、两次金融危机、两次石油危机、两次重大政治事件和一次外汇危机。在西方发达国家连连遭受经济挫折的时候,中国经济的腾飞引得世人瞩目。近年来,经济学家们纷纷认可中国在世界经济中做出的巨大贡献。在近几百年的历史中,只有在战后的美国和20世纪60年代的日本出现过类似当今中国的经济腾飞。而美国和日本的崛起都直接或间接地改变了世界格局,改变了国际货币系统、影响了世界原材料市场、重新配置了国际资本以及重新确定了劳动力的国际细分。那么中国经济的高速发展会改写经济的格局吗?如果会,将体现在哪些方面?另外,为了成为世界经济的领头羊,中国经济应如何发展?应注意什么问题?本文将探讨这个话题。
In the 1980s, some economists made a bold prediction that the world economic center would be transferred from the United States to Asia. At the time, such a forecast could be too far ahead, but with the rise of China’s economy, such a forecast is receiving more and more attention. From 1997 to 2004, the global economy has been in an unstable state. In the meantime, a series of crises alternately emerged in the world: the economic crisis in three emerging countries, the two financial crises, the two oil crises, the two major political incidents and the one foreign exchange crisis. At a time of economic setbacks in developed countries in the West, China’s economic growth has drawn the world’s attention. In recent years, economists have all recognized China’s tremendous contribution to the world economy. In the past few centuries, the economic take-off similar to today’s China has taken place only in the post-war U.S. and in the 1960s. The rise of the United States and Japan, both directly and indirectly, changed the world pattern, changed the international monetary system, affected the world raw material market, reconfigured international capital, and redefined the international breakdown of the workforce. Then, the rapid development of China’s economy will rewrite the pattern of the economy? If so, what will be reflected? In addition, in order to become the world leader in the economy, how should the Chinese economy develop? What should pay attention to? This article will explore this topic.