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在后金融危机背景下,研究不确定性事件对我国进出口贸易进而对经济波动的影响显得更为有意义。在国内和国外不确定性事件的发生所带来的随机冲击中,国外事件特别是金融危机等经济事件对我国国际贸易造成了较为严重的负面影响;受滞后效应的影响,当前国际金融危机自2009年1月开始对我国国际贸易产生了较大的冲击;不确定性事件在对我国国际贸易带来负面影响的同时,也进一步冲击了我国的经济增长,引发了经济波动,产生了持久影响。
In the context of post-financial crisis, it is more meaningful to study the impact of uncertain events on the import and export trade of our country and thus the economic fluctuations. In the random shock caused by the occurrence of uncertainties both at home and abroad, foreign events, especially financial crises, have had a serious negative impact on China’s international trade. Influenced by the lagged effect, the current international financial crisis In January 2009, China’s international trade began to have a greater impact; the uncertainties brought negative impact on China’s international trade, but also further affected China’s economic growth, triggered economic fluctuations and had a lasting impact .