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本报告演示了我们运用分红折现模型(DDM)研判中国蓝筹股的总体估值状况的基本过程。以天相280指数作为研究对象,我们得出在2005年3月中下旬,中国蓝筹股总体上处于低估状态的结论。本研究报告的研究前提是:不考虑是否全流通。也就是说,仅考虑天相280指数公司的过去的公开历史会计数据,公司内部经营效率的发展因素和对整体经济趋势的预测,不考虑可能有全流通补偿的因素。因此,我们的中国蓝筹股总体低估的结论,在立即无条件全流通,没有任何补偿的情况下也同样适用。通过运用恒定分红DDM的模型对天相280指数公司的研究,我们预期中国蓝筹股的长期平均净资产回报率(ROE)是13%到13.6%之间。我们判断蓝筹股投资者的平均最低要求回报率是9%左右。
This report demonstrates the basic process by which we use the dividend discount model (DDM) to evaluate the overall valuation of Chinese blue chip stocks. Taking the Tianxiang 280 index as the research object, we conclude that in the middle and late March 2005, Chinese blue chip stocks were generally undervalued. The research premise of this study is: Do not consider whether the circulation. That is to say, only the historical public historical accounting data of the companies of the Tianxiang 280 Index, the development factors of the internal operating efficiency of the company and the forecast of the overall economic trends are taken into account, regardless of factors that may have full circulation compensation. Therefore, the conclusion that our Chinese blue-chip stocks are undervalued as a whole is also true immediately and unconditionally with full circulation without any compensation. By using the model of constant dividend DDM to research Tianxing 280 Index Company, we expect the long-term average ROE of China blue chip stocks to be between 13% and 13.6%. We judge that the average minimum required rate of return for blue chip investors is around 9%.