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近年来,关于长波理论问题的探讨,日益引起人们的注意。尤其是随着科学技术革命的不断深入,探明长波理论与世界新技术革命的关系,更是一个值得重视的理论和实践问题。 一、世界经济发展的周期理论 自康德拉季耶夫提出长波理论以来,对是否存在这种长波一直存在分歧。从近代和现代经济发展的历史看,世界经济的发展确实存在一定的周期性。这一周期性由短周期、中周期和长周期构成。一些短周期引发中周期,一些中周期又形成长周期,从而实现经济发展从一
In recent years, discussions on the issue of long-wave theory have drawn increasing attention. Especially with the continuous deepening of science and technology revolution, it is a theoretical and practical issue worthy of attention to prove the relationship between the theory of longwave and the world’s new technological revolution. I. THE PERIOD THEORY OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Since Kondratiev proposed the theory of longwave, there has always been a disagreement on the existence of such a longwave. Judging from the history of modern and modern economic development, there is indeed some periodicity in the development of world economy. This cycle consists of short cycle, medium cycle and long cycle. Some short cycles trigger the middle cycle, some medium cycle and another long cycle, so as to achieve economic development from one