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我国的家禽业起步于20世纪80年代,发展到20世纪90年代已形成规模。2003年我国禽蛋产量2535万吨,禽肉产量1320万吨,分别占全球产量的近40%和17%。家禽业是中国畜牧产业发展中增长最快的行业,而且也是市场化程度和规模化程度最高的行业。因此,系统地分析我国家禽业供需市场对指导该产业的未来发展以及改善我国居民生活消费水平有着重要的现实意义。1我国家禽类产品供给概况自20世纪90年代以来,我国养禽业得到快速发展,禽蛋产量不断上升。1990年我国肉类总产量为2897万吨,禽蛋产量为794.6万吨,禽肉产量为322.9万吨。到2002年,我国肉类总产量上升到6586.5万吨,增长1.3倍,禽蛋产量上升到2462.7万吨,增长2.1倍,禽肉产量上升到1249.8万吨,增长2.9倍。其中,禽肉产量和禽蛋产量增长速度均高于肉类总产量的增长速度。我国禽类产品生产量变动见图1所示。我国家禽类产品生产得到快速发展的原因主要在于国内存在巨大的需求空间,随着人们收入水平的提高,人们的消费需求发生变化,食品支出逐步从高淀粉类食品向高脂肪和高蛋白类产品转变。
China’s poultry industry started in the 1980s and developed to the size of the 1990s. In 2003, China produced 25.35 million tons of poultry eggs and 13.2 million tons of poultry meat, accounting for nearly 40% and 17% of global production respectively. Poultry industry is the fastest growing industry in China’s livestock industry, but also the most market-oriented and large-scale industries. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to systematically analyze the supply and demand market of poultry industry in our country to guide the future development of the industry and improve the living standards of Chinese residents. 1 Overview of the supply of poultry products in our country Since the 1990s, the poultry industry in our country has witnessed rapid development and the output of poultry eggs has been on the rise. In 1990, China’s total output of meat was 28.97 million tons, egg production was 7.994 million tons and poultry meat production was 3.229 million tons. By 2002, China’s total output of meat rose to 65.865 million tons, an increase of 1.3 times. Egg production rose to 24.627 million tons, an increase of 2.1 times. Poultry meat production rose to 12.498 million tons, an increase of 2.9 times. Among them, the growth rate of poultry meat production and egg production are higher than the total meat production growth rate. China’s poultry production changes in Figure 1 shows. The main reason for the rapid development of China’s poultry production lies in its huge domestic demand space. As people’s income levels rise, people’s consumption needs change. Food expenditures gradually shift from high-starch foods to high-fat and high-protein products change.