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利用北京地区1985～2008年逐日降水数据资料,运用IPCC极端天气气候事件指标确定方法计算得到北京地区暴雨天气指标在10.4～38.8mm之间波动,暴雨气候指标为日降水量≥27.5mm。以暴雨天气指标、暴雨气候指标和国家暴雨标准计算历年的暴雨日数和暴雨量,统计分析年降雨日数、暴雨日数和年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率的相关关系,得出年降雨日数和暴雨日数都不能真实地反映作物洪涝受灾率,而年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率则具有明显的线性正相关关系。以区域暴雨气候指标统计的暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率相关程度最高,笔者建议以暴雨量来预测评估洪涝灾害时,采用区域暴雨气候指标。
Using daily precipitation data from 1985 to 2008 in Beijing area and using the IPCC extreme weather and climate event determination method, the index of heavy rainfall in Beijing fluctuates between 10.4 and 38.8 mm. The daily precipitation of rainstorm is ≥27.5 mm. Based on the indicators of rainstorm, stormy weather and national storm criteria, the number of rainstorm days and rainfall over the years were calculated. The correlations between the annual number of rainy days, the number of rainstorm days, annual precipitation, stormwater and flood catastrophe were calculated, and the annual rainfall days And the number of rainstorm days can not truly reflect the crop flood catastrophe rate, but the annual precipitation and storm rainfall and crop flood catastrophe rate has a significant linear positive correlation. The correlation between the rainfall quantity and the rate of flood disaster affected by the regional storm climatic index is the highest, and the author suggests to use the regional storm climatic index when predicting the flood disaster with the heavy rainfall.