论文部分内容阅读
生产率顺周期性的传统解释为技术进步、要素利用率(需求冲击)以及市场力量等因素的周期波动。二元经济结构波动是发展中国家TFP周期波动的另一可能原因。本文扩展了Roeger(1995)的分析思路,利用原核算与对偶核算TFP之间的差异检验了不同因素对中国1979~2009年TFP周期性的影响。分析结果表明,二元经济结构变化是影响中国经济周期波动的一个显著因素,在1995年之前这一因素的作用更为突出。
The traditional explanation of pro-cyclicality in productivity is the cyclical fluctuations in factors such as technological progress, factor utilization (demand shocks), and market forces. The volatility of the dual economy is another possible cause of the cyclical fluctuations in the TFPs of developing countries. This paper extends Roeger’s (1995) analysis to examine the effect of different factors on the periodicity of TFP from 1979 to 2009 in China, using the difference between original and dual TFP. The analysis shows that the change of the dual economic structure is a significant factor that affects the fluctuation of China’s economic cycle. Before 1995, this factor played a more prominent role.