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文章对冲击地压的定量预测即震级和地点的预测方法进行了研究和探讨。通过对华丰矿及大安山矿房山采区的冲击地压资料统计分析发现,冲击地压的震级和发生次数的对数具有线性关系,并可利用该关系对未来冲击地压的趋势和最大震级作出预测。对于冲击地压地点预测,提出采用材料分叉分析方法,通过对煤岩体分叉区域的演化规律研究,计算出冲击发生位置。
In this paper, the quantitative prediction of rockburst, that is, the prediction method of magnitude and location are studied and discussed. Based on the statistical analysis of the rock burst data of Fangshan mining area in Huafeng Mine and Da’an Mountain Mine, it is found that there is a linear relationship between the magnitude of rock burst and the logarithm of the occurrence frequency, and the relationship between the maximum and the maximum Magnitude to make a prediction. For the prediction of the location of rockburst, a method of material bifurcation analysis is proposed to study the evolution of bifurcation area of coal and rock mass and calculate the location of impact.