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为深入理解城市增长的驱动机制,本研究利用1998、2003和2008年3期LandsatTM遥感影像,应用空间分析技术和广义线性模型从多个尺度对南京城市边缘区内聚落规模的变化及增速分异的驱动机制进行了分析。结果表明,研究期间聚落占地率持续增长,不同时期、不同区位的聚落分布及增长率存在显著差异。南京城市的边缘增长受到多种因子的共同作用,影响因素的构成依赖于研究的时空尺度。1998—2003年期间主要影响因子为水体占地率、公交站点数量、与国道、省道、县道的最近距离、林业用地占地率等;2003—2008年期间包括与国道、省道、县道的最近距离、公共绿地占地率、公交站点数量等。交通可达性以及人居环境质量对城市边缘增长速率的影响普遍存在于2～4km不同研究尺度上,但不同尺度上具有显著作用的具体因子具有明显差别。总体上,交通可达性表现出最高的相对重要性。城市基础设施规模、公共绿地占地率等因子的负效应反映了城市增长空间的制约作用,这种制约作用先期只发生在较小尺度上,后期在较大尺度上也有所体现。
In order to further understand the driving mechanism of urban growth, this study used three Landsat TM remote sensing images in 1998, 2003 and 2008, and applied spatial analysis techniques and generalized linear models to analyze the changes of urban agglomeration size and growth rate Different driving mechanisms were analyzed. The results showed that the occupancy rate of the settlements continued to increase during the study period, with significant differences in the distribution and growth rates of the settlements at different periods and locations. The edge growth of Nanjing city is affected by many factors, and the composition of the influencing factors depends on the spatial and temporal scale of the study. The main influencing factors during 1998-2003 are the occupation rate of water bodies, the number of bus stops, the nearest distance to the national highway, provincial highway and county road, the land occupation rate of forestry land, etc; Road, the recent distance, the share of public green space, the number of bus stops and so on. The influence of traffic accessibility and Habitat environment quality on the growth rate of urban fringe is widespread in 2 ~ 4km different research scales, but there are obvious differences in the specific factors that have significant effects on different scales. In general, transport accessibility shows the highest relative importance. The negative effect of factors such as the scale of urban infrastructure and the share of public green space reflects the restrictive role of urban growth space. This restrictive effect first occurred only on a smaller scale and later on a larger scale.