如何理解计量经济学的经济理论意义?——基于理论思维和现实的二分视角

• 作 者: 朱富强
• 机 构: 中山大学岭南学院经济研究所,
• 出 处: 福建论坛(人文社会科学版)
• 发表日期: 2012年06期
• 关键词: 实证分析 计量经济学 统计方法 经济理论

从理论上说,计量经济学要实现揭示经济现象间因果关系以促进经济理论发展的原初目的,就需要将计量分析工具和经济理论有机契合起来;相反,如果缺乏足够的经济学理论素养,就只能得出非常片面的论断,而无法真正揭示事物的内在本质和相互间的作用机理。但在实践上,当前绝大多数从事统计分析或计量实证的经济学人都缺乏足够的经济学理论素养,从而往往基于机械的统计数据而得出一系列荒谬的论断;更甚者,这些学人还热衷于将统计学关系转变为政策主张,从而往往带来严重的灾难。

In theory, econometrics needs to reveal the original purpose of revealing the causal relationship between economic phenomena to promote the development of economic theory. Therefore, econometrics tools and economic theories need to be organically combined. On the contrary, if there is not enough theoretical literacy in economics, Can only draw a very one-sided assertion, but can not really reveal the intrinsic essence of things and their interaction mechanisms. In practice, however, most current economists engaged in statistical analysis or measurement of empirical evidence lack sufficient theoretical literacy in economics, and often draw a series of absurd arguments based on mechanical statistics; what is more, these studies People are also keen to turn statistical relations into policy advocates, often leading to serious catastrophe.