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未来十年,中国经济面临着继续大发展的机遇,同时也是转型的关键时期。利用灰度预测模型和ARIMA模型对工业总量及增速进行预测分析,结论是,要继续保持中国工业年均增长20%的速度,驱动力必须从要素投入、产业结构以及区域空间结构三个层面进行变革,其中城市化速度的加快是未来十年中国工业持续增长的关键驱动力;工业化制造供给,城市化创造需求;中国工业增长的终极目标是通过结构的更加均衡,增长可持续机制的逐步建立,使整体民众获得更大的福利和增长的分享。
In the next ten years, China’s economy will face the opportunity of continuing its great development and will also be a crucial period for its transformation. Using gray prediction model and ARIMA model to forecast the total industrial output and growth rate, the conclusion is that to keep the annual growth rate of China’s industrial average 20%, the driving force must be from the factor input, industrial structure and regional spatial structure Level changes, of which the acceleration of urbanization is the key driver of China’s sustained industrial growth in the next decade; the demand for industrialized manufacturing and urbanization creates demand; and the ultimate goal of China’s industrial growth is to achieve a more balanced and sustainable economic growth through structurally more balanced and sustainable growth mechanisms Gradual establishment, so that the general public access to greater welfare and growth to share.